Research

Peer-Reviewed Publications

1. The Legacy of Mexico’s Drug War on Youth Political Attitudes

   Omar García-Ponce, and Isabel Laterzo-Tingley

   British Journal of Political Science, 2026

   ABSTRACT

   How does childhood exposure to large-scale criminal violence and militarized law enforcement shape political attitudes and behavior? We examine the case of Mexico’s drug war, where a generation has been raised amidst the country’s most violent conflict in over a century. Surveying nearly 3,000 urban youth to measure their political and interpersonal trust, we matched respondents to historical data on criminal violence and military confrontations and operations in their childhood municipalities. Disentangling the effects of criminal violence and military interventions, we find that exposure to homicidal violence during childhood erodes interpersonal trust and trust in law enforcement, while military interventions—especially those involving violent confrontations—undermine trust broadly in federal security institutions and generate political backlash against the parties that governed Mexico during the exposure period. These findings have important implications for young democracies affected by high crime and violence and advance our understanding of how criminal wars influence political socialization.

2. The Public Security Issue Area

   Isabel Laterzo-Tingley

   Political Research Quarterly, 2026

   ABSTRACT

   Public security remains a central issue across the globe. Approaches to studying this issue area have largely followed two orientations: one conceptualizes security along an ideologically dictated unidimensional spectrum, ranging from tough-on-crime strategies (right-wing) to social policy-oriented alternatives (left-wing). The other examines specific security strategies without assuming a singular ideological continuum. This paper bridges these orientations by offering a conceptual framework that more holistically defines the structure of this issue area. Using computational text analysis of Brazilian gubernatorial campaign proposals (2010–2022) and over 100 expert interviews, I assess the validity of the unidimensional heuristic and propose an alternative mapping of public security policies across four categories: crime prevention, repression, human rights and accountability, and pro-police reform. Findings demonstrate that 1) these policy categories are not fundamentally mutually exclusive, and 2) while ideology does help us understand who proposes certain public security portfolios, there is substantial ideological intragroup heterogeneity.

3. The “Tough-on-Crime" Left: Race, Gender, and Elections of Law-and-Order Democrats

   Isabel Laterzo-Tingley, and Leah Christiani

   Research & Politics, 2024

   ABSTRACT

   In June 2021, Eric Adams — a former captain of the New York City Police Department  —  won the Democratic mayoral primary for the city of New York with 30.7% of the vote. Adams’ candidate profile struck many as unique  —  a Black man, he paradoxically represented a liberal yet tough-on-crime approach. In this paper, we analyze how tough-on-crime candidates’ identities impact their favorability among progressive voters. We focus on both race (e.g., Black vs white candidates) and gender (e.g., female vs male candidates). Building on literature regarding stereotypes, perceived policy competency, and expectations among progressive voters, we hypothesize that tough-on-crime candidates will be less favorable to Democratic voters, but this will depend on candidate identity. We expect both Black and/or female tough-on-crime candidates to experience less pushback for tough-on-crime stances compared to their white and/or male counterparts. We test these expectations via a conjoint experiment included in an original, nationally representative survey of U.S. adults. Our results support the idea that Democrats punish tough-on-crime candidates, but this effect is conditional on candidate identity. Namely, Democratic Black candidates are not strongly punished for being tough-on-crime. Unexpectedly, we find that female Democratic candidates experience more electoral penalty than their male counterparts when taking tough-on-crime position.

4. Progressive Ideology and Support for Punitive Crime Policy: Evidence from Brazil and Argentina

   Isabel Laterzo

   Comparative Political Studies, 2024

   ABSTRACT

   Scholars commonly link citizens’ broader ideological views to their preferences for two opposing approaches to fighting crime: conservatives are believed to support punitive approaches, while progressives support preventative solutions. Yet, other studies indicate that citizens across the ideological spectrum support punitive approaches, often due to instrumental factors such as experiences with and perceptions of crime. This study examines how instrumental factors interact with ideology and determines under what circumstances progressives support punitive candidates. The results of a conjoint experiment fielded in Argentina and Brazil demonstrate that among progressives, the effect of ideology on preferences for punitive candidates is moderated by three instrumental factors: perceptions regarding 1) insecurity, 2) the ineffectiveness of social policy, and 3) gang-driven crime; there are null results regarding the role of victimization. The findings also provide evidence that conservatives prefer punitive candidates regardless of instrumental explanations. The results are validated through an analysis of AmericasBarometer data.

5. Who is to Blame? Youth Crime and Attribution of Responsibility in Urban Mexico

   Omar García-Ponce, Isabel Laterzo, Vivian Bronsoler, and 2 more authors

   Journal of Criminal Justice, 2023

   ABSTRACT

   Crime and violence threaten people’s safety and overall well-being around the globe. Youths represent a large fraction of the victims and perpetrators of violent crime. Understanding how youths make judgments about criminal acts and attribute blame has important implications, as these patterns are associated with perceptions of the acceptability of criminal behavior. Drawing on standard theories of blame attribution, we investigate the causal attributions of responsibility for criminal behavior among youths in urban Mexico, distinguishing between internal blame (attributed to the perpetrator) and external blame (attributed to the government and society). Using a novel, face-to-face survey experiment with nearly 3000 Mexicans aged 16–29 and seven focus groups, we examine how the perpetrator’s socioeconomic background, role within a gang, victim type, and crime severity influence assessments of blame attribution. Our results provide compelling evidence that the socioeconomic status of the perpetrator and the type of gang involvement significantly influence assessments of internal and external blame. We also find that blame allocation differs based on respondents’ characteristics and community environment. These findings shed light on how youths rationalize criminal behavior and have clear implications for policy-relevant research concerning crime and violence among youths.

6. Political Engagement and Crime Victimization: A Causal Analysis

   Isabel Laterzo

   Revista Latinoamericana de Opinión Publica, 2021

   ABSTRACT

   In recent years, research has demonstrated that crime victimization serves as a catalyst to political engagement. However, much of this work has not addressed two key issues: 1) the true causality of this relationship, and 2) how victims’ identities and personal experiences might influence this relationship. This paper tackles these issues by testing the effect of victimization on non-electoral engagement using the Two-City, Six-Wave panel survey administered in Brazil between 2002 and 2006. It finds that the causal relationship between victimization and engagement only exists for participation in political party meetings. Furthermore, when exploring the role of individual identity and community context, only men, those who live in safe neighborhoods, and White Brazilians experience an increase in their engagement. Meanwhile, women, those in unsafe neighborhoods, and Afro-Brazilians do not experience such an increase. Those who have not experienced discrimination also increase their participation, while those who have experienced discrimination do not.

Working Papers

1. Institutional Accountability and Support for Democracy: Evidence from a Natural Experiment

   Nicolás Cerda, Isabel Laterzo-Tingley, and Ayelén Vanegas

   R&R, British Journal of Political Science, Last Updated: July 2026

   ABSTRACT

   How do criminal proceedings against democratically elected executives influence citizens’ support for democracy? We explore citizens’ reactions to institutional accountability processes by analyzing the effect of coup charges brought against former president Bolsonaro by Brazil’s Prosecutor General. Taking advantage of the fortuitous timing of these charges during our survey fieldwork, we demonstrate that the indictment significantly bolstered democratic support among non-Bolsonaro voters, while having no discernible negative effect on his supporters. Our findings offer a nuanced view of theories suggesting that partisan loyalties should lead supporters to reject democratic institutions that target their preferred leaders. This study contributes novel evidence on democratic resilience by capturing real-time reactions to consequential accountability processes outside experimental settings.

2. (Mis)Perceptions of Crime and Welfare Attitudes: Evidence from Public Housing in Brazil

   Isabel Laterzo-Tingley, and Ayelén Vanegas

   Last Updated: August 2026

   ABSTRACT

   Globally, persistent housing deficits have driven large-scale investments in public housing, yet such programs often face resistance rooted in crime concerns. We examine whether these concerns reflect actual insecurity or misperceptions, and how they shape political support. Focusing on Brazil’s \textitMinha Casa, Minha Vida (MCMV) program, we combine a program-embedded natural experiment, a causal analysis of the staggered roll-out of the program across a major city, and analyses of two beneficiary surveys. We find no evidence that public housing increases city-wide, neighborhood-level, or beneficiary-involved crime. Fewer than 1% of beneficiaries report wanting to leave due to violence, and relocation is not causally associated with insecurity or security-related claims. Instead, beneficiaries report high residential satisfaction and improved well-being. But, concerns about the connection between public housing and crime are widespread. In light of this, we assess how perceptions of crime shape policy preferences through a pre-registered survey experiment (n = 1,974). While baseline support for public housing is high, it declines when crime is framed as city-wide, but is resilient to crime affecting only beneficiaries. Respondents also shift their security preferences, highlighting a potential shift towards security provision. These findings underscore how perceptions, rather than crime itself, shape redistribution and security preferences.

3. Do Experts Govern Better? Medical Mayors and Public Health in Brazil

   Isabel Laterzo-Tingley, and Giancarlo Visconti

   Last Updated: August 2026

   ABSTRACT

   Do professional experts govern more effectively when elected to political office? We examine this question by studying the election of medical professionals as mayors across Brazil’s municipal governments between 2000 and 2022, where nearly 10% of mayors have backgrounds in healthcare. We argue that expert professionals have the ability to govern more effectively in their domain through \textitsector-specific competence: a combination of technical knowledge, issue priority, and professional capital. Using administrative, electoral, and public health data from more than 5,500 municipalities, we implement staggered difference-in-differences to estimate the effects of medical mayors on public policy and health outcomes. To probe mechanisms, we complement these analyses with an original survey of more than 500 healthcare bureaucrats across 114 municipalities and an analysis of over 34,000 mayoral campaign manifestos. We find that medical mayors increase healthcare spending, expand health infrastructure, improve healthcare utilization, reduce low birthweight rates, and commit fewer severe infractions in the health sector. These gains do not extend to unrelated policy domains and primarily surface after sustained exposure across multiple mayoral terms. Our findings demonstrate that while expertise can improve public service delivery, its benefits may be constrained to specific domains and unfold over long political time horizons.

In Preparation

1. Economic Mobility, Gender, and Criminal Behavior: Evidence from Mexico

   Isabel Laterzo-Tingley, Elena Barham, and Omar García-Ponce
2. Can Religious Appeals Counteract Punitive Criminal Justice Preferences?

   Isabel Laterzo-Tingley, Lucas Borba, and Samuel Schmitt

   Funding: Policy Research Institute, LBJ School
3. Music, Organized Crime, and Government Censorship: The Case of Narcocorridos in Mexico

   Isabel Laterzo-Tingley, and Marco Alcocer
4. Digital Interventions to Strengthen Electoral Trust: A WhatsApp Field Experiment in Brazil

   Isabel Laterzo-Tingley, Karin Vervuurt, Daniel Nielson, and 3 more authors

   Funding: UVA Seed Grant
5. Built on the Edge: Public Housing and the Politics of Urban Inequality in Brazil

   Isabel Laterzo-Tingley, Diego Romero, Ayelén Vanegas, and 1 more author

   Funding: LLILAS Seed Grant